Straight Talk

March 30, 2026

Five Things You Missed This Week

1. “The U.S. Is Insolvent.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recent stated that he believes the U.S. government is insolvent. But financial markets didn’t react negatively to that comment. First, the U.S. simply can print money to pay off its debts. Of course, that’s an inflationary tactic. Second, the statement is more confirmation that this presidential administration wants to cut interest rates. Bessent said more economic activity remains necessary to alleviate the debt situation. Though interest rate cuts risk inflation, it’s our opinion that economic growth and fighting a weak labor market are more important to the administration than high inflation.

2. Meta and YouTube Get Their Wrists Slapped.

In what may be a watershed moment for social media companies, a jury found Meta and YouTube liable for compensatory damages for social media addiction. The case brings to mind cases brought against big tobacco decades ago. Meta’s stock fell 8% on the news. The companies most certainly will appeal, and historically, a distinction exists in cases between mental and physical addiction. Meta acknowledges the headline risk, and Australia already had outlawed social media for people under the age of 16. This ruling opens the door for additional lawsuits. But Meta’s stock currently trades low versus historical and market price-to-earnings ratios, mostly because of its strategy related to AI, not because of legal and regulatory concerns.

3. The Dollar.

The U.S. dollar dropped last week on news of imminent negotiations with Iran but then moved higher on the prospect of more U.S troops heading there. Most financial assets have lost value since the war started, but the dollar is on track for its biggest monthly gain since July. The currency has been buoyed by inflows as a perceived safe-haven asset and by diminished expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has gained 2% in March, a reversal from an 8% decline in 2025. But a sustained energy shock by the war could cause the U.S. economy to slow, increasing the chance of Fed rate cuts, and that could end the dollar’s surge.

4. Oil Insights.

The biggest variable in the global economy right now is how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Based on our value team’s research, the current shutdown could lead to a five-year oil price average of $74 per barrel. Another four weeks could push that five-year average to $87 per barrel. An additional four weeks could push the average to $102 per barrel. In short, oil prices likely will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. It likely will take weeks for Hormuz to reopen in the event of a ceasefire. It will take months to restart production and exports, and it will take years to fully restore damaged infrastructure in the Middle East.

5. Next-Generation Investors.

During the next quarter century, trillions of dollars will transfer from the baby boom generation to younger generations, primarily Gen Z and millennials. A new report from the CFA Institute highlights how those younger generations differ in their investment attitudes. Younger investors prefer digitally facilitated communication. They’re more likely to own cryptocurrencies, exchange-traded funds and invest in real estate. They also show a strong preference in aligning their portfolios with their values, which pushes up their demand for customized investments, such as funds focused on sustainability. They learn from a wide variety of online sources, but human financial advisors remain the single most trusted source of guidance.