Advisor Resources
Easing Inflation Fears
When inflation is rising, pundits are predicting a recession, and clients are anxious, you want to have productive conversations that help them cope.
Get big-picture market insights, behavior-based conversation starters, and portfolio builders to help you do it.
Big Picture
Economic Outlook: What’s Ahead for the U.S. Economy?
Our investment professionals see three possible scenarios ahead for the economy—recession, stagflation or Goldilocks. Here’s their take on which is most likely, plus steps investors can take to prepare for each one.
Our View: Recession Could Come by Year-End
In our view, recession risk remains relatively high. We expect inflation to linger at 3% or higher and gross domestic product (GDP) to contract eventually, which ultimately should trigger rate cuts from the Fed.
As recession sets in, Treasury yields likely will fall, and credit spreads should widen.
Investment adjustments worth considering:
Increase duration exposure to prepare for potential future interest-rate decreases.
Maintain inflation-protection strategies.
Keep credit quality high.
Focus less on equity style because the distinctions tend to mean less in recessions.
Look to sustainable growth for stock investments.
Select quality stocks—and vehicles that invest in them.
Watch for the possibility that commodities lose their appeal.
Limit exposure to real estate stocks.
Our View: Stagflation Less Likely, But Still Possible
In this scenario, we would expect the 10-year Treasury yield to move higher amid significant volatility as slow growth and high inflation collide. The two-year Treasury yield could also rise amid continued Fed tightening. Meanwhile, credit spreads, particularly in the high-yield sector, would potentially widen as economic growth remains weak.
Investment adjustments worth considering:
Maintain inflation-protection strategies.
Focus on quality credit instruments.
Focus on traditional value sectors and favor quality stocks.
Consider commodities—but be cautious, as geopolitics and the pandemic’s ongoing effects could heavily influence performance.
Limit exposure to real estate.
Our View: Goldilocks Possibility Is Slim
We believe a “Goldilocks” scenario of a soft economic landing, in which inflation rapidly slows and the Fed pivots from restrictive policy, is unlikely. However, if inflation moderates further and faster, and the Fed adopts a neutral monetary policy, we expect Treasury yields and mortgage rates would decline, credit spreads would tighten and economic growth would recover.
Investment adjustments worth considering:
Take a look at higher-risk bonds.
Be nimble—and explore an active approach—when it comes to duration management.
Maintain inflation-protection strategies.
Consider growth stocks and cyclical stocks, which tend to outperform in this environment.
Choose commodities with care—industrial metals could benefit from a demand pick-up while food and energy prices could come down as inflation eases.
Explore REITs, which are likely to benefit from any housing market recovery and interest-rate declines.
Conversation Starters
Understanding Investor Biases
Inflation Fears Can Bring Out Biases
A few biases often come to the fore during economic stresses such as high inflation.
“Having awareness of biases, such as overconfidence, loss aversion, or recency bias can help people make really good choices.”
Cass Sunstein, Professor, Harvard University
Certain goals can trigger common biases.
Get Behavioral Tips by Investor Goal
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Common Behavior: Loss Aversion
“If we are myopically focused on losses over the importance of gains, we might make decisions that cause terrible economic problems.”
Cass Sunstein, Professor, Harvard University
To help cope with loss aversion, Professor Sunstein suggests these actions:
Offer comparative judgments to help clients understand the risk trade-offs of various investment classes, including cash.
Frame your questions to give people a sense of the long term rather than the short. Seeing short-term risks can scare people away. Conversely, seeing long-term patterns can be calming.
Behavioral content Cass Sunstein ©2023 All Rights Reserved
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Common Behavior: Availability (Recency Bias)
“If you're focused on income, you might be thinking too much about recent events—what's available to your mind.”
Cass Sunstein, Professor, Harvard University
To help cope with availability bias, Professor Sunstein suggests this action:
Ask how often these clients check their investment performance. Data show that many investors check their portfolios a lot when things are going not so well and not so much when things are going well.
Behavioral content Cass Sunstein ©2023 All Rights Reserved
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Common Behavior: Overconfidence and Action Bias
“People who are focused on growth sometimes aren’t thinking enough about the long term.”
Cass Sunstein, Professor, Harvard University
To help see how growth-oriented your client really is, Professor Sunstein suggests this action:
Ask your client, “How do you feel if it turns out that you have a really good 18 months, but in that three-month period, things don't go so well?” Many people find out they’re not as growth minded as they believed themselves to be when faced with market losses or high inflation.
Behavioral content Cass Sunstein ©2023 All Rights Reserved
Put Behavioral Insights to Work for Clients
Apply Decision Hygiene
Explore Thinking "Systems"
Explain Why a Precommitment Plan
Behavioral content Cass Sunstein ©2023 All Rights Reserved
Portfolio Builders
Explore By Investor Goal
To support clients with these common goals, consider these investment ideas.
Consider Adding TIPS
As inflation rises, so do Treasury inflation-protected securities’ (TIPS) face values. That’s why TIPS have the potential to generate an income stream that outpaces inflation.
Shifting 25% of a core bond portfolio to TIPS creates the opportunity for:
Better performance in a rising interest rate period.
A risk level that stays steady with that of a core bond portfolio.
See It in Action
The sample allocation illustrated in the graphic shows that, over the past five years, a 75/25 blended portfolio using Short Duration Inflation Protection Bond Fund:
Improved performance an average of about 0.40% per year.
Reduced risk by about 13%.
Sample allocation.
View Supporting Data
Investment Objectives | Gross Expense Ratio (%) | Quarter | 1 Yr Avg Annual Total Return (%) | 3 Yr Avg Annual Total Return (%) | 5 Yr Avg Annual Total Return (%) | 10 Yr Avg Annual Total Return (%) | Standard Deviation (5 Yr) | Inception | |
Core Bonds with 25% Allocation to American Century | - | - | -1.10 | -0.99 | -2.50 | 1.16 | 1.50 | 4.77 | - |
American Century Short Duration Inflation Bond Fund Investor Class | B*** | 0.56 | -1.56 | -1.04 | 2.21 | 2.44 | 1.50 | 3.44 | 5/31/2005 |
Core Bonds* | A** | 0.04 | -0.85/ | -0.93/ | -3.97/ | 0.74/ | 1.48/ | 5.48 | 9/22/2003 |
Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index | - | - | -1.42 | -1.40 | -0.12 | 2.49 | 2.08 | 6.00 | - |
All data as of 6/30/2023.
Data reflects past performance, assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains and is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than data shown. Investment return and principal value fluctuate. Redemption value may be more or less than original cost. View fund performance data as of the most recent month-end: American Century Short Duration Inflation Protected Bond Fund. Core Bonds representative data is presented quarterly.
For additional information, consult the prospectus.
Glossary Terms: Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index, Standard Deviation
*The Core Bond investment category is represented by iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), which is composed of a broadly diversified set of bond investments and includes SEC yield. AGG does not represent a specific investment in this comparison. Net Asset Value (NAV) prices are used to calculate market price performance prior to the date when the Fund first traded on the New York Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Market performance is determined using the bid/ask midpoint at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, when the NAV is typically calculated. Market performance does not represent the returns you would receive if you traded shares at other times. Following are daily closing prices as of the dates specified: 6/28/2013: $107.21; 6/29/2018: $106.32; 6/30/2020: $118.21; 6/30/2022: $101.68.
A**: Seeks to provide total return and inflation protection consistent with investment in inflation-indexed securities. With any investment, you could lose all or part of your investment in the Fund and the Fund’s performance could trail that of other investments. The Fund is subject to certain risks, including the principal risks noted below, any of which may adversely affect the Fund’s net asset value per share (“NAV”), trading price, yield, total return and ability to meet its investment objective. The order of the below risk factors does not indicate the significance of any particular risk factor.
Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Performance shown reflects fee waivers and or expense reimbursements of 0.01% by the investment advisor to the fund for all or some of the periods shown. Performance would have been lower without such waivers. Diversification and asset allocation may not protect against market risk or loss of principal. Transactions in shares of ETFs will result in brokerage commissions and will generate tax consequences. All regulated investment companies are obliged to distribute portfolio gains to shareholders.
The iShares Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC. For more information about the fund, including a full discussion of risks, please see the fund’s prospectus on the iShares website at www.ishares.com/ishares/agg.
B***: Tracks the investment results of an index composed of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market.
All funds and ETFs: Provide daily liquidity. Principal is not guaranteed.
Additional Investments to Consider
To see fund ratings for all time periods, visit each fund's profile through the individual links below.
Name | Ticker | Overall Rating | # of Funds in Category |
TWUSX | ★★★★ Among 87 funds in the Short Government category | |
ACSNX | ★★★ Among 525 funds in the Short-Term Bond category |
As of 6/30/2023. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating™ based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund's monthly performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance.
More About Morningstar
The Morningstar Rating™ for funds, or "star rating", is calculated for managed products (including mutual funds, variable annuity and variable life subaccounts, exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds, and separate accounts) with at least a three-year history. Exchange-traded funds and open-ended mutual funds are considered a single population for comparative purposes. It is calculated based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a managed product's monthly excess performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The Morningstar Rating does not include any adjustment for sales loads. The top 10% of products in each product category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars, and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a managed product is derived from a weighted average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five-, and 10-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. The weights are: 100% three-year rating for 36-59 months of total returns, 60% five-year rating/40% three-year rating for 60-119 months of total returns, and 50% 10-year rating/30% five-year rating/20% three-year rating for 120 or more months of total returns. While the 10-year overall star rating formula seems to give the most weight to the 10- year period, the most recent three-year period actually has the greatest impact because it is included in all three rating periods.
Consider Short-Duration Investments
Complement core bond holdings with short-duration investments to add flexibility as interest rates rise to combat inflation.
Shifting 25% of a core bond allocation to short-duration investments creates the opportunity for:
Increased income.
Lower interest-rate sensitivity.
See It in Action
The sample allocation illustrated in the graphic shows that a 75/25 blended portfolio:
Increased income by 13%.
Reduced interest-rate sensitivity by more than 16%.
Sample allocation.
View Supporting Data
All data as of 6/30/2023.
Data reflects past performance, assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains and is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than data shown. Investment return and principal value fluctuate. Redemption value may be more or less than original cost. View fund performance data as of the most recent month-end: American Century Short Duration Strategic Income Fund. Core Bonds representative data is presented quarterly.
For additional information, consult the prospectus.
Glossary Terms: Bloomberg U.S. 1-3 Year Government/Credit Bond Index, Average Effective Duration, 12 Month Yield, 30 Day SEC Yield
*The Core Bond investment category is represented by iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), which is composed of a broadly diversified set of bond investments and includes SEC yield. AGG does not represent a specific investment in this comparison. Net Asset Value (NAV) prices are used to calculate market price performance prior to the date when the Fund first traded on the New York Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Market performance is determined using the bid/ask midpoint at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, when the NAV is typically calculated. Market performance does not represent the returns you would receive if you traded shares at other times. Following are daily closing prices as of the dates specified: 6/28/2013: $107.21; 6/29/2018: $106.32; 6/30/2020: $118.21; 6/30/2022: $101.68.
A**: Seeks to provide total return and inflation protection consistent with investment in inflation-indexed securities. With any investment, you could lose all or part of your investment in the Fund and the Fund’s performance could trail that of other investments. The Fund is subject to certain risks, including the principal risks noted below, any of which may adversely affect the Fund’s net asset value per share (“NAV”), trading price, yield, total return and ability to meet its investment objective. The order of the below risk factors does not indicate the significance of any particular risk factor.
Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Performance shown reflects fee waivers and or expense reimbursements of 0.01% by the investment advisor to the fund for all or some of the periods shown. Performance would have been lower without such waivers. Diversification and asset allocation may not protect against market risk or loss of principal. Transactions in shares of ETFs will result in brokerage commissions and will generate tax consequences. All regulated investment companies are obliged to distribute portfolio gains to shareholders.
The iShares Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC. For more information about the fund, including a full discussion of risks, please see the fund’s prospectus on the iShares website at www.ishares.com/ishares/agg.
B***: Tracks the investment results of an index composed of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market.
All funds and ETFs: Provide daily liquidity. Principal is not guaranteed.
Additional Investments to Consider
To see fund ratings for all time periods, visit each fund's profile through the individual links below.
Name | Ticker | Overall Rating | # of Funds in Category |
KORP | ★★★★ Among 187 funds in the Corporate Bond category | |
ASIEX | ★★★★ Among 311 funds in the Multisector Bond category | |
BCHYX | ★★★★★ Among 104 funds in the Muni California Long category | |
BCITX | ★★★★ Among 61 funds in the Muni California Intermediate category | |
ABHYX | ★★★★ Among 193 funds in the High Yield Muni category | |
TWTIX | ★★★★ Among 272 funds in the Muni National Interm category |
Effective February 14, 2023, Strategic Income Fund was renamed Multisector Income Fund.
As of 6/30/2023. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating™ based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund's monthly performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance.
More About Morningstar
The Morningstar Rating™ for funds, or "star rating", is calculated for managed products (including mutual funds, variable annuity and variable life subaccounts, exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds, and separate accounts) with at least a three-year history. Exchange-traded funds and open-ended mutual funds are considered a single population for comparative purposes. It is calculated based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a managed product's monthly excess performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The Morningstar Rating does not include any adjustment for sales loads. The top 10% of products in each product category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars, and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a managed product is derived from a weighted average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five-, and 10-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. The weights are: 100% three-year rating for 36-59 months of total returns, 60% five-year rating/40% three-year rating for 60-119 months of total returns, and 50% 10-year rating/30% five-year rating/20% three-year rating for 120 or more months of total returns. While the 10-year overall star rating formula seems to give the most weight to the 10- year period, the most recent three-year period actually has the greatest impact because it is included in all three rating periods.
Consider Investments Focused on Accelerated Earnings
The faster a company’s earnings accelerate, the more likely its stock will outperform the relevant benchmark over a one- to three-year horizon, American Century Investments research has found.
See It in Action
The sample allocation illustrated in the graphic shows that, over a 10-year period, an 80/20 mix of a global equity blended portfolio and a fund focused on accelerated earnings growth, such as American Century Ultra® Fund:
Increased return by over 12% with a modest rise in risk.
Delivered more than 100% outperformance against inflation (measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI)).
Sample allocation.
View Supporting Data
Quarter | 1 Yr Avg Annual Total Return (%) | 3 Yr Avg Annual Total Return (%) | 5 Yr Avg Annual Total Return (%) | 10 Yr Avg Annual Total Return (%) | Growth of $10,000 Investment (10 Years) | Standard Deviation (10yr)* | Gross Expense Ratio (%) | |
Global Equity Portfolio w/20% Allocation to American Century Ultra Fund | 7.36 | 18.62 | 10.76 | 9.59 | 10.11 | $26,201.64 | 13.86 | - |
Global Equity Blended Portfolio** | 6.05 | 16.51 | 10.56 | 8.35 | 8.76 | $23,190.09 | 13.36 | - |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 1.08 | 2.97 | 5.78 | 3.90 | 2.71 | $13,066.54 | 1.25 | - |
American Century Ultra Fund—Investor Class | 13.39 | 28.81 | 12.65 | 14.91 | 16.11 | - | 18.25 | 0.95 |
Russell 1000 Growth Index | 12.81 | 27.11 | 13.73 | 15.14 | 15.14 | - | 16.62 | - |
Performance and statistics are as of 6/30/2023.
Data reflects past performance, assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains and is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than data shown. Investment return and principal value fluctuate. Redemption value may be more or less than original cost. View fund performance data as of the most recent month-end: American Century Ultra® Fund. Global Equity Blended Portfolio representative data is presented quarterly.
*Returns are based on 10-year annualized returns and risk (measured by standard deviation).
For additional information, consult the prospectus.
Glossary: Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, Consumer Price Index (CPI), MSCI World Index, Russell 1000 Growth Index, Standard Deviation
**Global Equity Blended Portfolio is comprised of 90% MSCI World Index, 10% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index
Source: MSCI. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used to create indices or financial products. This report is not approved or produced by MSCI. Source: Bloomberg Index Services Ltd
Additional Investments to Consider
To see fund ratings for all time periods, visit each fund's profile through the individual links below.
Name | Ticker | Overall Rating | # of Funds in Category |
AVUV | ★★★★★ Among 444 funds in the Small Cap Value category | |
AVDE | ★★★★ Among 678 funds in the Foreign Large Blend category | |
AVEM | ★★★★ Among 723 funds in the Diversified Emerging Markets category | |
ANOIX | ★★★★ Among 526 funds in the Small Growth category | |
ACMVX | ★★★★ Among 380 funds in the Mid-Cap Value category |
As of 6/30/2023. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating™ based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund's monthly performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance.
More About Morningstar
The Morningstar Rating™ for funds, or "star rating", is calculated for managed products (including mutual funds, variable annuity and variable life subaccounts, exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds, and separate accounts) with at least a three-year history. Exchange-traded funds and open-ended mutual funds are considered a single population for comparative purposes. It is calculated based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a managed product's monthly excess performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The Morningstar Rating does not include any adjustment for sales loads. The top 10% of products in each product category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars, and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a managed product is derived from a weighted average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five-, and 10-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. The weights are: 100% three-year rating for 36-59 months of total returns, 60% five-year rating/40% three-year rating for 60-119 months of total returns, and 50% 10-year rating/30% five-year rating/20% three-year rating for 120 or more months of total returns. While the 10-year overall star rating formula seems to give the most weight to the 10- year period, the most recent three-year period actually has the greatest impact because it is included in all three rating periods.
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General Disclosures
There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be met.
Diversification does not assure a profit nor does it protect against loss of principal.
The information is not intended as a personalized recommendation or fiduciary advice and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal or tax advice.
This information is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment or tax advice.
The value and/or returns of a portfolio will fluctuate with market and economic conditions.
Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities including credit, price and interest rate risk.
Generally, as interest rates rise, the value of the securities held in the fund will decline. The opposite is true when interest rates decline.
In addition, the lower-rated debt securities in which the fund invests are subject to greater credit risk and liquidity risk. Credit risk is the risk that an obligation won’t be paid and a loss will result. Liquidity risk is the risk that the fund will have difficulty selling its debt securities. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives will be met. Dividends and yields represent past performance and there is no guarantee that they will continue to be paid.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are bought and sold through exchange trading at market price (not NAV), and are not individually redeemed from the fund. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.
Fixed Income Disclosures
The value and/or returns of a portfolio will fluctuate with market and economic conditions.
Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities including credit, price and interest rate risk.
Generally, as interest rates rise, the value of the securities held in the fund will decline. The opposite is true when interest rates decline.
The lower rated securities in which the fund invests are subject to greater credit risk, default risk and liquidity risk.
Credit risk is the risk that an obligation won't be paid and a loss will result. Generally, a lower credit rating indicates a greater risk of non-payment. Liquidity risk is the risk that the fund will have difficulty selling its debt securities.
Short Duration Inflation Protection Bond Fund
In certain interest rate environments, such as when real interest rates are rising faster than nominal interest rates, inflation-protected securities with similar durations may experience greater losses than other fixed income securities. Interest payments on inflation-protected debt securities will fluctuate as the principal and/or interest is adjusted for inflation and can be unpredictable.
iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
ETFs are baskets of securities that trade like stocks on an exchange and can be bought or sold throughout the trading day at fluctuating market prices (not NAV). Shares may trade at a premium or discount to NAV in the secondary market. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. Like mutual funds, ETFs also have expense ratios. In general, actively managed ETFs cost more than passively managed index ETFs. Unlike mutual funds, it is possible to buy ETFs on margin and sell them short. ETFs held in a taxable account may result in less tax liabilities than similarly invested mutual fund the same account. Different companies offer ETFs. iShares are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, BlackRock). All rights reserved. iShares and BLACKROCK are registered trademarks of BlackRock.
Ultra Fund
The fund is subject to potentially greater short-term price volatility than that associated with an average stock fund.
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Morningstar Rating - Investor Class
Morningstar Category - US Fund Small Value | Overall | 3 Year | 5 Year | 10 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratings |
|
| - | - |
# of Funds | 444 | 444 | - | - |
ALL DATA AS OF 6/30/2023. SOURCE: MORNINGSTAR.
For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating™ based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund's monthly performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Foreside Fund Services, LLC - Distributor, not affiliated with American Century Investment Services, Inc.
Mutual Funds: American Century Investment Services, Inc., Distributor.